Written Wednesday Mar 2nd, 2025 10:30PM PDT
Some people are finally getting it. There’s no rhyme or reason to these tariffs. They just don’t make any sense at all. A tariff implemented to bring back shipbuilding to America for instance, would take at least DECADE to actually deliver. BUT it would be worthwhile, helping to bring back an important and strategic US industry.
BUT a tariff (tax) on toasters and pencil sharpeners? Clothes hangers? Men’s underwear? Ask yourself, are these strategic products? What kind of margins are we talking about? Is it even worth it to bring back these jobs? Are these the jobs that will give people the skills of the future? And how much will we have to pay people to do such menial labor, especially at full employment, and while simultaneously cracking down on immigrant labor ??
But also, the argument goes, these tariffs will raise revenue! Let’s put that in perspective. The Trump administration says the tariffs will bring in $600 billion in annual revenue. Even if this is to be believed (and it shouldn’t), The losses in the equity markets from the tariff rollouts have already wiped out $2 Trillion.
And even if that doesn’t jar you, the effects of a recession (now at 50% for 2025 on polymarket, and rising almost weekly in Goldman Sachs estimates) will absolutely wash out those revenue gains.
Vietnam, for instance, exports $150 Billion in goods to the US. If we slap a tariff (TAX on US citizens) on all those goods, and they retaliate with a tariff (TAX on themselves) on our $10 billion of exports to them, who does that really hurt??
So what are the rest of you holding on to? Some insane pipe dream that Trump and his merry band of sycophants are playing 3D chess and intentionally crashing the economy to lower interest rates and bond yields so that he can slay the debt with a combination of inflation and budget cuts???
If that’s the case, let me tell you why you’re wrong. MILLIONS stand to lose their jobs and livelihoods in that scenario. Ever heard of the misery index? This will be the most miserable you’ve ever felt in your lives economically, by far. And, unless you’re sitting on millions of dollars in LIQUID assets, you will absolutely feel it. Because having $1 million, in just a few years, will feel like having $100k.
If you don’t get this concept, there’s little hope for you. You probably will lose your shirt trying to “own the libs” and “win” against your sister in a political debate.
In just a couple years, there will be no more political debate. The party will be officially over. America will turn against this cabal of oligarchs, and they will either capitulate, or try to hold on to power by suppressing and nullifying our votes.
God help us all.
REconomix 