Notes on the economy mini blog – Fear rises

On June 5th 2024, I issued a warning for individuals and investors alike. The data that was coming in signaled a growing weakness in the economy. Check out below.

Our warning from July 5th was right on the money!

Today’s data and market reaction has proved me right (yet again!) that the so-called “soft-landing“ may be over. The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index, AKA the “fear index”) is up significantly since our warning.

Just yesterday, the Fed decided to hold rates steady, at least until September. This decision has now come under fire by many as too late to head off recessionary headwinds in the economy. How do I feel about that? Better than a lot of people, because I prepared for it.

A broad market sell-off today signals that investors are at least somewhat nervous about the economy. Bond markets also show signs of broad investor pessimism.

The job market has shown some weakness as well. A slowdown in the monthly hiring rate coupled with rising unemployment is also appearing in the most recent data.

Is it time to panic? Never. Is there hope? Always. Email me about your thoughts and strategies on the current economic condition and how it pertains to you.

Shouting into the void…

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